Crop Production
Crop Production 

ISSN: 1936-3737

Released December 11, 2018, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Cotton Production Up 1 Percent from November Forecast
Orange Production Unchanged 

All cotton production is forecast at 18.6 million 480-pound bales, up 1 
percent from November but down 11 percent from last year. Yield is expected 
to average 860 pounds per harvested acre, up 8 pounds from last month but 
down 45 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 17.8 
million 480-pound bales, down 12 percent from 2017. Pima cotton production, 
forecast at 771,000 bales, was carried forward from an earlier forecast.

The United States all orange forecast for the 2018-2019 season is 
5.53 million tons, unchanged from last month but up 41 percent from the 
2017-2018 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 
77.0 million boxes (3.47 million tons), is unchanged from last month but 
up 71 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and 
Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 32.0 million boxes 
(1.44 million tons), unchanged from last month but up 69 percent from last 
season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 
45.0 million boxes (2.03 million tons), is unchanged from last month but 
up 73 percent from last season's final utilization. California and Texas 
orange production forecasts were carried forward from the previous month.

This report was approved on December 11, 2018.

Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Robert Johansson

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Joseph L. Parsons

Contents

Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type - States and United States: 2017 and Forecasted 
December 1, 2018...........................................................................................  4

Cottonseed Production - United States: 2017 and Forecasted December 1, 2018................................  5

Cotton Production - United States Chart....................................................................  5

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2017-2018 and Forecasted 
December 1, 2018...........................................................................................  6

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2017 and 
Forecasted December 1, 2018................................................................................  7

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2017 and 2018....  8

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2017 and 2018...... 10

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2018 and 2019................................ 12

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2018 and 2019.................................. 13

Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts - Selected States: 2014-2018................................................. 14

Percent of Normal Precipitation Map........................................................................ 15

Departure from Normal Temperature Map...................................................................... 15

November Weather Summary................................................................................... 16

November Agricultural Summary.............................................................................. 16

Crop Comments.............................................................................................. 17

Statistical Methodology.................................................................................... 19

Information Contacts....................................................................................... 21
 
Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type - States and United States: 2017 and
Forecasted December 1, 2018
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :  Area harvested   :         Yield per acre         :    Production 1/    
                 :--------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Type and State :         :         :        :         2018          :          :          
                 :  2017   :  2018   :  2017  :-----------------------:   2017   :   2018   
                 :         :         :        :November 1 :December 1 :          :          
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :--- 1,000 acres --   ---------- pounds ----------        1,000 bales 2/   
                 :                                                                          
Upland           :                                                                          
Alabama .........:   430.0     470.0     902        899         883        808.0      865.0 
Arizona .........:   159.0     149.0   1,464      1,450       1,450        485.0      450.0 
Arkansas ........:   438.0     480.0   1,177      1,150       1,160      1,074.0    1,160.0 
California ......:    87.0      49.0   1,297      2,057       1,910        235.0      195.0 
Florida .........:    98.0      80.0     759        750         750        155.0      125.0 
Georgia .........: 1,270.0   1,350.0     841        693         676      2,225.0    1,900.0 
Kansas ..........:    90.0     159.0   1,051      1,032       1,032        197.0      342.0 
Louisiana .......:   217.0     190.0     894      1,061       1,036        404.0      410.0 
Mississippi .....:   625.0     615.0   1,038      1,140       1,155      1,351.0    1,480.0 
Missouri ........:   297.0     320.0   1,212      1,245       1,275        750.0      850.0 
                 :                                                                          
New Mexico ......:    46.0      65.0   1,179      1,034       1,034        113.0      140.0 
North Carolina ..:   367.0     400.0     969        828         828        741.0      690.0 
Oklahoma ........:   555.0     570.0     882        716         674      1,020.0      800.0 
South Carolina ..:   248.0     280.0     912        806         771        471.0      450.0 
Tennessee .......:   340.0     355.0   1,033      1,048       1,034        732.0      765.0 
Texas ...........: 5,500.0   4,500.0     809        715         747      9,270.0    7,000.0 
Virginia ........:    83.0      97.0   1,110        965         965        192.0      195.0 
                 :                                                                          
United States ...:10,850.0  10,129.0     895        836         844     20,223.0   17,817.0 
                 :                                                                          
American Pima    :                                                                          
Arizona .........:    15.0      13.5     966        889         889         30.2       25.0 
California ......:   215.0     209.0   1,407      1,610       1,610        630.0      701.0 
New Mexico ......:     7.4       6.9     863        904         904         13.3       13.0 
Texas ...........:    13.0      16.0     960        960         960         26.0       32.0 
                 :                                                                          
United States ...:   250.4     245.4   1,341      1,508       1,508        699.5      771.0 
                 :                                                                          
All              :                                                                          
Alabama .........:   430.0     470.0     902        899         883        808.0      865.0 
Arizona .........:   174.0     162.5   1,421      1,403       1,403        515.2      475.0 
Arkansas ........:   438.0     480.0   1,177      1,150       1,160      1,074.0    1,160.0 
California ......:   302.0     258.0   1,375      1,695       1,667        865.0      896.0 
Florida .........:    98.0      80.0     759        750         750        155.0      125.0 
Georgia .........: 1,270.0   1,350.0     841        693         676      2,225.0    1,900.0 
Kansas ..........:    90.0     159.0   1,051      1,032       1,032        197.0      342.0 
Louisiana .......:   217.0     190.0     894      1,061       1,036        404.0      410.0 
Mississippi .....:   625.0     615.0   1,038      1,140       1,155      1,351.0    1,480.0 
Missouri ........:   297.0     320.0   1,212      1,245       1,275        750.0      850.0 
                 :                                                                          
New Mexico ......:    53.4      71.9   1,135      1,021       1,021        126.3      153.0 
North Carolina ..:   367.0     400.0     969        828         828        741.0      690.0 
Oklahoma ........:   555.0     570.0     882        716         674      1,020.0      800.0 
South Carolina ..:   248.0     280.0     912        806         771        471.0      450.0 
Tennessee .......:   340.0     355.0   1,033      1,048       1,034        732.0      765.0 
Texas ...........: 5,513.0   4,516.0     809        716         747      9,296.0    7,032.0 
Virginia ........:    83.0      97.0   1,110        965         965        192.0      195.0 
                 :                                                                          
United States ...:11,100.4  10,374.4     905        852         860     20,922.5   18,588.0 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.                                                      
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.                                                               

Cottonseed Production - United States: 2017 and Forecasted December 1, 2018
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                        Production                         
      State      :-----------------------------------------------------------
                 :            2017             :           2018 1/           
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                        1,000 tons                         
                 :                                                           
United States ...:           6,422.0                       5,858.0           
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.                                

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2017-2018 and
Forecasted December 1, 2018
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year.]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :   Utilized production boxes 1/    :Utilized production ton equivalent 
       Crop and State       :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :    2017-2018    :    2018-2019    :    2017-2018    :    2018-2019    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            :     ------ 1,000 boxes ------            ------ 1,000 tons -----      
Oranges                     :                                                                       
California, all 2/ .........:     45,400             49,000            1,816             1,960      
 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..:     35,900             40,000            1,436             1,600      
 Valencia ..................:      9,500              9,000              380               360      
                            :                                                                       
Florida, all ...............:     44,950             77,000            2,023             3,465      
 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..:     18,950             32,000              853             1,440      
 Valencia ..................:     26,000             45,000            1,170             2,025      
                            :                                                                       
Texas, all 2/ ..............:      1,880              2,400               80               103      
 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..:      1,530              1,800               65                77      
 Valencia ..................:        350                600               15                26      
                            :                                                                       
United States, all .........:     92,230            128,400            3,919             5,528      
 Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..:     56,380             73,800            2,354             3,117      
 Valencia ..................:     35,850             54,600            1,565             2,411      
                            :                                                                       
Grapefruit                  :                                                                       
California 2/ ..............:      4,000              3,900              160               156      
Florida, all ...............:      3,880              6,400              165               272      
 Red .......................:      3,180              5,300              135               225      
 White .....................:        700              1,100               30                47      
Texas 2/ ...................:      4,800              6,200              192               248      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:     12,680             16,500              517               676      
                            :                                                                       
Tangerines and mandarins 4/ :                                                                       
California 2/ ..............:     19,200             23,000              768               920      
Florida ....................:        750              1,200               36                57      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:     19,950             24,200              804               977      
                            :                                                                       
Lemons 2/                   :                                                                       
Arizona ....................:      1,000              1,400               40                56      
California .................:     21,200             20,000              848               800      
                            :                                                                       
United States ..............:     22,200             21,400              888               856      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, 
   Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.          
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.                             
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties 
   in Florida and Texas.                                                                            
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.                                                                   

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and
United States: 2017 and Forecasted December 1, 2018
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :  Area harvested   :         Yield per acre 1/         :   Production 1/   
              :---------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State    :         :         :         :          2018           :         :         
              :  2017   :  2018   :  2017   :-------------------------:  2017   :  2018   
              :         :         :         : November 1 : December 1 :         :         
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :    1,000 acres       ------------ tons -----------      -- 1,000 tons --  
              :                                                                           
Florida ......:  412.7     413.0     41.1        40.8         40.1      16,942    16,561  
Louisiana ....:  449.6     462.0     32.8        33.0         34.3      14,744    15,847  
Texas ........:   41.8      40.0     37.1        34.8         34.9       1,552     1,396  
              :                                                                           
United States :  904.1     915.0     36.8        36.6         36.9      33,238    33,804  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net tons.                                                                              

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2017 and 2018
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :       Area planted        :      Area harvested       
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2017     :    2018     :    2017     :    2018     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                      1,000 acres                      
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley .................................:     2,481         2,543         1,954         1,978   
Corn for grain 1/ ......................:    90,167        89,140        82,703        81,767   
Corn for silage ........................:      (NA)                       6,434                 
Hay, all ...............................:      (NA)          (NA)        53,784        55,068   
  Alfalfa ..............................:      (NA)          (NA)        16,563        17,351   
  All other ............................:      (NA)          (NA)        37,221        37,717   
Oats ...................................:     2,588         2,746           801           865   
Proso millet ...........................:       478           490           404                 
Rice ...................................:     2,463         2,943         2,374         2,902   
Rye ....................................:     1,961         2,011           286           273   
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................:     5,626         5,792         5,045         5,093   
Sorghum for silage .....................:      (NA)                         284                 
Wheat, all .............................:    46,022        47,800        37,541        39,605   
  Winter ...............................:    32,696        32,535        25,291        24,742   
  Durum ................................:     2,307         2,065         2,106         1,967   
  Other spring .........................:    11,019        13,200        10,144        12,896   
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola .................................:   2,077.0       1,990.5       2,002.0       1,941.1   
Cottonseed .............................:       (X)           (X)           (X)           (X)   
Flaxseed ...............................:       303           168           272           160   
Mustard seed ...........................:     103.0          91.5          95.4          85.7   
Peanuts ................................:   1,871.6       1,426.5       1,775.6       1,345.5   
Rapeseed ...............................:      10.1           5.4           9.7           5.1   
Safflower ..............................:     162.0         190.0         143.2         181.0   
Soybeans for beans .....................:    90,142        89,145        89,522        88,343   
Sunflower ..............................:   1,403.0       1,302.0       1,333.8       1,240.0   
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all ............................:  12,612.5      14,042.0      11,100.4      10,374.4   
  Upland ...............................:  12,360.0      13,794.0      10,850.0      10,129.0   
  American Pima ........................:     252.5         248.0         250.4         245.4   
Sugarbeets .............................:   1,131.2       1,122.0       1,114.1       1,098.8   
Sugarcane ..............................:      (NA)          (NA)         904.1         915.0   
Tobacco ................................:      (NA)          (NA)         321.5         302.0   
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Austrian winter peas ...................:      26.5          16.5           9.4          11.9   
Dry edible beans .......................:   2,092.0       2,078.0       2,012.7       2,009.0   
  Chickpeas, all .......................:     618.8         819.7         599.3         651.3   
   Large ...............................:     439.3         608.5         424.5         449.2   
   Small ...............................:     179.5         211.2         174.8         202.1   
Dry edible peas ........................:   1,128.0         865.0       1,050.5         824.5   
Lentils ................................:   1,104.0         785.0       1,022.0         758.0   
Wrinkled seed peas .....................:      (NA)                        (NA)                 
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops ...................................:      (NA)          (NA)          53.3          55.3   
Maple syrup ............................:      (NA)          (NA)          (NA)          (NA)   
Mushrooms ..............................:      (NA)          (NA)          (NA)          (NA)   
Peppermint oil .........................:      (NA)                        60.4                 
Potatoes, all ..........................:   1,033.0       1,028.7       1,024.9       1,018.4   
  Spring ...............................:      58.0          47.0          57.7          45.8   
  Summer ...............................:      68.3          62.0          65.5          59.5   
  Fall .................................:     906.7         919.7         901.7         913.1   
Spearmint oil ..........................:      (NA)                        22.3                 
Sweet potatoes .........................:     161.6         159.5         159.3         157.2   
Taro (Hawaii) ..........................:      (NA)                         0.4                 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.                                                     --continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2017 and 2018 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :      Yield per acre       :        Production         
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2017     :    2018     :    2017     :    2018     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                             --------- 1,000 --------  
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley ..........................bushels:     72.6          77.4         141,923       153,082  
Corn for grain ..................bushels:    176.6         178.9      14,604,067    14,625,974  
Corn for silage ....................tons:     19.9                       128,356                
Hay, all ...........................tons:     2.44          2.44         131,455       134,384  
  Alfalfa ..........................tons:     3.32          3.43          55,068        59,527  
  All other ........................tons:     2.05          1.98          76,387        74,857  
Oats ............................bushels:     61.7          64.9          49,391        56,130  
Proso millet ....................bushels:     36.1                        14,567                
Rice 2/ .............................cwt:    7,507         7,522         178,228       218,299  
Rye .............................bushels:     33.9          30.9           9,696         8,432  
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels:     72.1          71.4         363,832       363,668  
Sorghum for silage .................tons:     13.3                         3,772                
Wheat, all ......................bushels:     46.3          47.6       1,739,645     1,884,458  
  Winter ........................bushels:     50.2          47.9       1,269,437     1,183,939  
  Durum .........................bushels:     26.0          39.3          54,777        77,287  
  Other spring ..................bushels:     41.0          48.3         415,431       623,232  
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola ...........................pounds:    1,558         1,864       3,118,680     3,619,020  
Cottonseed .........................tons:      (X)           (X)         6,422.0       5,858.0  
Flaxseed ........................bushels:     14.1                         3,842                
Mustard seed .....................pounds:      632                        60,250                
Peanuts ..........................pounds:    4,007         4,066       7,115,410     5,471,250  
Rapeseed .........................pounds:    2,139                        20,750                
Safflower ........................pounds:    1,256                       179,896                
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels:     49.3          52.1       4,410,673     4,599,530  
Sunflower ........................pounds:    1,616         1,560       2,155,262     1,934,980  
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales:      905           860        20,922.5      18,588.0  
  Upland 2/ .......................bales:      895           844        20,223.0      17,817.0  
  American Pima 2/ ................bales:    1,341         1,508           699.5         771.0  
Sugarbeets .........................tons:     31.7          30.5          35,325        33,504  
Sugarcane ..........................tons:     36.8          36.9          33,238        33,804  
Tobacco ..........................pounds:    2,209         1,814         710,161       547,812  
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Austrian winter peas 2/ .............cwt:    1,330         1,227             125           146  
Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt:    1,781         1,884          35,845        37,848  
  Chickpeas, all 2/ .................cwt:    1,152                         6,905                
   Large 2/ .........................cwt:    1,165                         4,945                
   Small 2/ .........................cwt:    1,121                         1,960                
Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt:    1,350         1,683          14,177        13,874  
Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt:      732         1,159           7,482         8,787  
Wrinkled seed peas ..................cwt:     (NA)                           357                
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops .............................pounds:    1,959         1,910       104,366.0     105,683.6  
Maple syrup .....................gallons:     (NA)          (NA)           4,271         4,159  
Mushrooms ........................pounds:     (NA)          (NA)         933,355       917,235  
Peppermint oil ...................pounds:       96                         5,778                
Potatoes, all .......................cwt:      431           444         442,034       452,619  
  Spring ............................cwt:      343           336          19,790        15,387  
  Summer ............................cwt:      331           332          21,679        19,750  
  Fall ..............................cwt:      444           457         400,565       417,482  
Spearmint oil ....................pounds:      125                         2,796                
Sweet potatoes ......................cwt:      224                        35,646                
Taro (Hawaii) ....................pounds:   10,530                         3,686                
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                             
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                            
1/   Area planted for all purposes.                                                             
2/   Yield in pounds.                                                                           

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2017 and 2018
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                :       Area planted        :      Area harvested       
              Crop              :-------------------------------------------------------
                                :    2017     :    2018     :    2017     :    2018     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                :                       hectares                        
                                :                                                       
Grains and hay                  :                                                       
Barley .........................:  1,004,040     1,029,130       790,760       800,480  
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,489,680    36,074,070    33,469,080    33,090,290  
Corn for silage ................:       (NA)                   2,603,780                
Hay, all 2/ ....................:       (NA)          (NA)    21,765,850    22,285,470  
  Alfalfa ......................:       (NA)          (NA)     6,702,880     7,021,780  
  All other ....................:       (NA)          (NA)    15,062,970    15,263,690  
Oats ...........................:  1,047,340     1,111,280       324,160       350,060  
Proso millet ...................:    193,440       198,300       163,490                
Rice ...........................:    996,750     1,191,000       960,730     1,174,410  
Rye ............................:    793,600       813,830       115,740       110,480  
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........:  2,276,790     2,343,960     2,041,660     2,061,090  
Sorghum for silage .............:       (NA)                     114,930                
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 18,624,640    19,344,180    15,192,470    16,027,750  
  Winter .......................: 13,231,740    13,166,590    10,235,010    10,012,840  
  Durum ........................:    933,620       835,680       852,280       796,030  
  Other spring .................:  4,459,280     5,341,910     4,105,180     5,218,880  
                                :                                                       
Oilseeds                        :                                                       
Canola .........................:    840,540       805,540       810,190       785,540  
Cottonseed .....................:        (X)           (X)           (X)           (X)  
Flaxseed .......................:    122,620        67,990       110,080        64,750  
Mustard seed ...................:     41,680        37,030        38,610        34,680  
Peanuts ........................:    757,420       577,290       718,570       544,510  
Rapeseed .......................:      4,090         2,190         3,930         2,060  
Safflower ......................:     65,560        76,890        57,950        73,250  
Soybeans for beans .............: 36,479,570    36,076,090    36,228,660    35,751,530  
Sunflower ......................:    567,780       526,910       539,780       501,820  
                                :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ .................:  5,104,150     5,682,660     4,492,220     4,198,420  
  Upland .......................:  5,001,970     5,582,290     4,390,890     4,099,110  
  American Pima ................:    102,180       100,360       101,330        99,310  
Sugarbeets .....................:    457,790       454,060       450,870       444,670  
Sugarcane ......................:       (NA)          (NA)       365,880       370,290  
Tobacco ........................:       (NA)          (NA)       130,100       122,210  
                                :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils    :                                                       
Austrian winter peas ...........:     10,720         6,680         3,800         4,820  
Dry edible beans ...............:    846,610       840,950       814,520       813,020  
  Chickpeas 2/ .................:    250,420       331,720       242,530       263,570  
   Large .......................:    177,780       246,250       171,790       181,790  
   Small .......................:     72,640        85,470        70,740        81,790  
Dry edible peas ................:    456,490       350,060       425,130       333,670  
Lentils ........................:    446,780       317,680       413,590       306,760  
Wrinkled seed peas .............:       (NA)                        (NA)                
                                :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous      :                                                       
Hops ...........................:       (NA)          (NA)        21,560        22,400  
Maple syrup ....................:       (NA)          (NA)          (NA)          (NA)  
Mushrooms ......................:       (NA)          (NA)          (NA)          (NA)  
Peppermint oil .................:       (NA)                      24,440                
Potatoes, all 2/ ...............:    418,040       416,300       414,770       412,140  
  Spring .......................:     23,470        19,020        23,350        18,530  
  Summer .......................:     27,640        25,090        26,510        24,080  
  Fall .........................:    366,930       372,190       364,910       369,520  
Spearmint oil ..................:       (NA)                       9,020                
Sweet potatoes .................:     65,400        64,550        64,470        63,620  
Taro (Hawaii) ..................:       (NA)                         140                
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table.                                             --continued

Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2017 and 2018 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :     Yield per hectare     :        Production         
                  Crop                  :-------------------------------------------------------
                                        :    2017     :    2018     :    2017     :    2018     
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        :                      metric tons                      
                                        :                                                       
Grains and hay                          :                                                       
Barley .................................:     3.91          4.16        3,090,010     3,332,970 
Corn for grain .........................:    11.08         11.23      370,960,390   371,516,850 
Corn for silage ........................:    44.72                    116,442,600               
Hay, all 2/ ............................:     5.48          5.47      119,253,970   121,911,110 
  Alfalfa ..............................:     7.45          7.69       49,956,850    54,001,990 
  All other ............................:     4.60          4.45       69,297,120    67,909,130 
Oats ...................................:     2.21          2.33          716,910       814,720 
Proso millet ...........................:     2.02                        330,370               
Rice ...................................:     8.41          8.43        8,084,290     9,901,880 
Rye ....................................:     2.13          1.94          246,290       214,180 
Sorghum for grain ......................:     4.53          4.48        9,241,760     9,237,590 
Sorghum for silage .....................:    29.77                      3,421,900               
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................:     3.12          3.20       47,345,380    51,286,540 
  Winter ...............................:     3.38          3.22       34,548,410    32,221,540 
  Durum ................................:     1.75          2.64        1,490,790     2,103,410 
  Other spring .........................:     2.75          3.25       11,306,180    16,961,600 
                                        :                                                       
Oilseeds                                :                                                       
Canola .................................:     1.75          2.09        1,414,610     1,641,560 
Cottonseed .............................:      (X)           (X)        5,825,940     5,314,290 
Flaxseed ...............................:     0.89                         97,590               
Mustard seed ...........................:     0.71                         27,330               
Peanuts ................................:     4.49          4.56        3,227,500     2,481,720 
Rapeseed ...............................:     2.40                          9,410               
Safflower ..............................:     1.41                         81,600               
Soybeans for beans .....................:     3.31          3.50      120,038,850   125,178,690 
Sunflower ..............................:     1.81          1.75          977,610       877,690 
                                        :                                                       
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops        :                                                       
Cotton, all 2/ .........................:     1.01          0.96        4,555,340     4,047,060 
  Upland ...............................:     1.00          0.95        4,403,040     3,879,190 
  American Pima ........................:     1.50          1.69          152,300       167,870 
Sugarbeets .............................:    71.08         68.35       32,046,300    30,394,320 
Sugarcane ..............................:    82.41         82.82       30,153,010    30,666,470 
Tobacco ................................:     2.48          2.03          322,120       248,480 
                                        :                                                       
Dry beans, peas, and lentils            :                                                       
Austrian winter peas ...................:     1.49          1.38            5,670         6,620 
Dry edible beans .......................:     2.00          2.11        1,625,900     1,716,760 
  Chickpeas, all 2/ ....................:     1.29                        313,210               
   Large ...............................:     1.31                        224,300               
   Small ...............................:     1.26                         88,900               
Dry edible peas ........................:     1.51          1.89          643,060       629,310 
Lentils ................................:     0.82          1.30          339,380       398,570 
Wrinkled seed peas .....................:     (NA)                         16,190               
                                        :                                                       
Potatoes and miscellaneous              :                                                       
Hops ...................................:     2.20          2.14           47,340        47,940 
Maple syrup ............................:     (NA)          (NA)           21,360        20,800 
Mushrooms ..............................:     (NA)          (NA)          423,360       416,050 
Peppermint oil .........................:     0.11                          2,620               
Potatoes, all 2/ .......................:    48.34         49.81       20,050,330    20,530,450 
  Spring ...............................:    38.44         37.66          897,660       697,940 
  Summer ...............................:    37.10         37.20          983,340       895,840 
  Fall .................................:    49.79         51.25       18,169,320    18,936,670 
Spearmint oil ..........................:     0.14                          1,270               
Sweet potatoes .........................:    25.08                      1,616,880               
Taro (Hawaii) ..........................:    11.80                          1,670               
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                             
(X)  Not applicable.                                                                            
1/   Area planted for all purposes.                                                             
2/   Total may not add due to rounding.                                                         

Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2018 and 2019
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2019 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2018-2019 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            Production             
                    Crop                   :-----------------------------------
                                           :      2018       :      2019       
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :                                   
Citrus 1/                                  :                                   
Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons:          517             676      
Lemons ..........................1,000 tons:          888             856      
Oranges .........................1,000 tons:        3,919           5,528      
Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons:          804             977      
                                           :                                   
Noncitrus                                  :                                   
Apples, commercial ..........million pounds:     11,452.2                      
Apricots ..............................tons:       39,800                      
Avocados ..............................tons:                                   
Bananas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:                                   
Blackberries (Oregon) .........1,000 pounds:                                   
Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds:                                   
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds:                                   
Boysenberries (Oregon) ........1,000 pounds:                                   
Cherries, Sweet .......................tons:      319,900                      
                                           :                                   
Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds:        352.7                      
Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds:                                   
Cranberries .........................barrel:    8,634,000                      
Dates .................................tons:                                   
Figs (California) .....................tons:                                   
Grapes ................................tons:    7,659,000                      
Kiwifruit (California) ................tons:                                   
Nectarines ............................tons:                                   
Olives (California) ...................tons:                                   
Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:                                   
                                           :                                   
Peaches ...............................tons:      732,050                      
Pears .................................tons:      739,200                      
Plums (California) ....................tons:                                   
Prunes (California) ...................tons:       80,000                      
Raspberries, all  .............1,000 pounds:                                   
Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt:     31,764.9                      
                                           :                                   
Nuts and miscellaneous                     :                                   
Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds:    2,450,000                      
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons:       52,000                      
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds:                                   
Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds:      278,900                      
Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds:                                   
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons:      690,000                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2017-2018 and 2018-2019.                               

Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2018 and 2019
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2019 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2018-2019 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            Production             
                    Crop                   :-----------------------------------
                                           :      2018       :      2019       
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           :            metric tons            
                                           :                                   
Citrus 1/                                  :                                   
Grapefruit ................................:      469,010           613,260    
Lemons ....................................:      805,580           776,550    
Oranges ...................................:    3,555,260         5,014,920    
Tangerines and mandarins ..................:      729,380           886,320    
                                           :                                   
Noncitrus                                  :                                   
Apples, commercial ........................:    5,194,630                      
Apricots ..................................:       36,110                      
Avocados ..................................:                                   
Bananas (Hawaii) ..........................:                                   
Blackberries (Oregon) .....................:                                   
Blueberries, Cultivated ...................:                                   
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................:                                   
Boysenberries (Oregon) ....................:                                   
Cherries, Sweet ...........................:      290,210                      
                                           :                                   
Cherries, Tart ............................:      159,980                      
Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................:                                   
Cranberries ...............................:      391,630                      
Dates .....................................:                                   
Figs (California) .........................:                                   
Grapes ....................................:    6,948,130                      
Kiwifruit (California) ....................:                                   
Nectarines ................................:                                   
Olives (California) .......................:                                   
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:                                   
                                           :                                   
Peaches ...................................:      664,100                      
Pears .....................................:      670,590                      
Plums (California) ........................:                                   
Prunes (California) .......................:       72,570                      
Raspberries, all ..........................:                                   
Strawberries ..............................:    1,440,830                      
                                           :                                   
Nuts and miscellaneous                     :                                   
Almonds, shelled (California) .............:    1,111,300                      
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............:       47,170                      
Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................:                                   
Pecans, in-shell ..........................:      126,510                      
Pistachios (California) ...................:                                   
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............:      625,960                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2017-2018 and 2018-2019.                               

Cotton Objective Yield Data

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted objective yield 
surveys in six cotton-producing States during 2018. Randomly selected plots 
in cotton fields were visited monthly from August through harvest to obtain 
specific counts and measurements. Data in this table are actual field counts 
from this survey.

Cotton Cumulative Boll Counts - Selected States: 2014-2018
[Includes small bolls (less than one inch in diameter), large unopened bolls
(at least one inch in diameter), open bolls, partially opened bolls, and burrs
per 40 feet of row. November, December, and Final exclude small bolls. Blank
data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :           :           :           :           :           
   State and month  :   2014    :   2015    :   2016    :   2017    :   2018    
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    :                          number                           
                    :                                                           
Arkansas            :                                                           
September ..........:    910         763         800         911         891    
October ............:    741         769         769         839         910    
November ...........:    771         856         779         825         892    
December ...........:    773         856         779         825         892    
Final ..............:    773         856         779         825                
                    :                                                           
Georgia             :                                                           
September ..........:    660         645         562         593         605    
October ............:    660         630         668         608         737    
November ...........:    717         748         719         680         712    
December ...........:    718         759         725         684         719    
Final ..............:    719         759         725         684                
                    :                                                           
Louisiana           :                                                           
September ..........:    745         676         654         648         759    
October ............:    876         776         760         667         734    
November ...........:    877         794         784         665         739    
December ...........:    877         793         784         665         739    
Final ..............:    877         793         784         665                
                    :                                                           
Mississippi         :                                                           
September ..........:    843         887         953         904         871    
October ............:    808         839         942         810         895    
November ...........:    861         898         974         804         846    
December ...........:    861         898         974         797         846    
Final ..............:    861         898         974         797                
                    :                                                           
North Carolina      :                                                           
September ..........:    604         551         558         637         601    
October ............:    629         620         599         705         641    
November ...........:    765         624         660         769         714    
December ...........:    764         632         660         769         719    
Final ..............:    764         632         660         769                
                    :                                                           
Texas               :                                                           
September ..........:    485         566         467         592         570    
October ............:    373         442         474         602         576    
November ...........:    453         481         528         603         553    
December ...........:    461         492         547         615         583    
Final ..............:    482         495         546         614                
                    :                                                           
6-State             :                                                           
September ..........:    564         601         532         633         627    
October ............:    487         518         554         635         661    
November ...........:    561         571         604         649         640    
December ...........:    566         581         618         656         659    
Final ..............:    587         583         618         656                
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

November Weather Summary

Overall, weather patterns remained similar to those observed during September 
and October, though there were subtle changes. For example, generally wet 
weather continued across the central and eastern United States, although 
drier conditions developed across southern Florida and the southern Plains. 
In addition, drier-than-normal weather persisted for much of the month in the 
western United States, contributing to an historic wildfire outbreak in 
California, but late-November storminess eased Western drought and curbed the 
wildfire threat. However, the late-month Western storminess also interrupted 
wildfire recovery efforts and triggered debris flows in recently burned 
areas.

California's wildfires, many of which started on November 8, caused extensive 
destruction and loss of life. In fact, northern California's Camp Fire became 
the Nation's deadliest wildfire in a century, with at least 85 fatalities 
reported in the Butte County community of Paradise. The Camp Fire also 
scorched more than 153,000 acres of vegetation and destroyed nearly 14,000 
homes. Concurrent fires in southern California collectively burned nearly 
100,000 acres and destroyed more than 400 homes.

Cold air, which had begun to settle across the Nation's mid-section and the 
Northeast in mid- to late October, became more fully entrenched during 
November. Monthly temperatures averaged at least 5�F below normal across 
portions of the Plains, Midwest, and mid-South, contributing to slow rates of 
drying and extensive fieldwork delays. On November 25, national harvest 
progress for crops such as cotton (70 percent complete) and soybeans 
(94 percent) was less advanced on that date than any of the previous 25 
years.

In the East, where it was generally cool, excessive rainfall also caused 
fieldwork interruptions. On November 25, more than one-third (35 percent) of 
the cotton in South Carolina and 36 percent of the soybeans in North Carolina 
had not yet been harvested. On the same date, topsoil moisture was rated at 
least one-half surplus in Louisiana (59 percent surplus) and North Carolina 
(50 percent). Ohio led the Midwest with topsoil moisture rated 65 percent 
surplus, while seven of the ten Atlantic Coast States from Maine to Maryland-
all but New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Rhode Island-reported topsoil moisture 
ranging from 50 to 100 percent surplus.

Farther west, mid- to late-month precipitation frequently fell as snow, 
maintaining abundant to locally excessive moisture reserves across the Plains 
and Midwest but curtailing fieldwork such as summer crop harvesting and late-
season winter wheat planting efforts. Cool, wet conditions also limited 
winter wheat emergence and establishment. During the weekend after 
Thanksgiving, an early-season winter storm snarled transportation from the 
central Plains into the lower Great Lakes region, along an axis that included 
Kansas City and Chicago. Another winter storm began to unfold across the 
Plains and Midwest on November 30, with effects carrying into early December.

November Agricultural Summary
 
Average monthly temperatures were generally below normal across much of the 
Great Lakes, Great Plains, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, and New England, 
which recorded weekly average temperatures more than 4�F below normal. 
Conversely, warmer conditions prevailed in parts of the Pacific Northwest, 
California, and Florida with temperatures reaching more than 2�F above normal 
in some areas. Precipitation levels were above normal across the eastern 
United States with areas in the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and Southeast 
receiving more than 6 inches of rain. In contrast, much of the Great Plains, 
Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and the Southwest remained moderately to 
extremely dry, receiving less than an inch of rain.

By November 4, seventy-six percent of the Nation's corn acreage was 
harvested, 8 percentage points ahead of last year but 1 percentage point 
behind the 5-year average. Corn harvested across the Nation was 84 percent 
complete by November 11, three percentage points ahead of last year but 
3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By November 25, corn harvested 
across the Nation was 94 percent complete, equal to last year 
but 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

Eighty-three percent of the Nation's soybean acreage was harvested by 
November 4, six percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year 
average. Across the Nation, soybean harvest was 88 percent complete by 
November 11, five percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year 
average. Ninety-four percent of the Nations soybeans were harvested by 
November 25, five percentage points behind last year and 4 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average.

By November 4, producers had sown 84 percent of the Nation's 2019 winter 
wheat acreage, 6 percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year 
average. Nationally, emergence was 70 percent complete by November 4, 
four percentage points behind last year and 7 percentage points behind the 
5-year average. By November 11, producers had sown 89 percent of the 
Nation's winter wheat acreage, 5 percentage points behind both last year and 
the 5-year average. Nationally, emergence was 77 percent complete by 
November 11, six percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year 
average. By November 25, producers had sown 95 percent of the 
Nation's winter wheat acreage, 4 percentage points behind both last year and 
the 5-year average. By November 25, emergence was 86 percent complete 
Nationally, 5 percentage points behind last year and 6 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. Overall, 55 percent of the 2019 winter wheat crop 
was rated in good to excellent condition by November 25, one percentage point 
below the previous week but 5 percentage points ahead of the same time last 
year.

Ninety-four percent of the Nation's cotton fields had bolls opening by 
November 4, two percentage points behind last year and 3 percentage points 
behind the 5-year average. Forty-nine percent of the Nation's cotton acreage 
was harvested by November 4, four percentage points behind last year and 
3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Overall, 33 percent of the 
cotton acreage was rated in good to excellent condition by November 4, 
two percentage points below the previous week and 22 percentage points below 
the same time last year. By November 11, ninety-six percent of the Nation's 
cotton fields had bolls opening, 2 percentage points behind both last year 
and the 5-year average. Fifty-four percent of the Nation's cotton acreage was 
harvested by November 11, nine percentage points behind last year and 
7 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By November 25, 
seventy percent of the Nation's cotton acreage was harvested, 8 percentage 
points behind last year and 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

By November 4, ninety-seven percent of the Nation's sorghum was considered 
mature, 1 percentage point behind both last year and the 5-year average. 
Producers had harvested 64 percent of the Nation's acreage by November 4, 
six percentage points behind last year and twelve percentage points behind 
the 5-year average. By November 11, producers had harvested 73 percent of the 
Nation's sorghum acreage, 8 percentage points behind last year and 
11 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By November 25, producers had 
harvested 89 percent of the Nation's sorghum acreage, 5 percentage points 
behind both last year and the 5-year average.

Seventy-five percent of the Nation's peanut acreage was harvested as of 
November 4, six percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year 
average. Eighty-one percent of the Nation's peanut acreage was harvested as 
of November 11, ten percentage points behind last year and 8 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. Ninety-one percent of the Nation's peanut 
acreage was harvested as of November 25, six percentage points behind last 
year and 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

By November 4, producers had harvested 91 percent of the Nation's sugarbeet 
acreage, equal to last year but 1 percentage point behind the 5-year average. 
By November 11, producers had harvested 96 percent of the Nation's sugarbeet 
acreage, equal to both last year and the 5-year average.

Fifty-two percent of this year's sunflower crop was harvested by November 4, 
sixteen percentage points behind last year and 9 percentage points behind the 
5-year average. By November 11, sixty-one percent of this year's sunflower 
crop was harvested, 18 percentage points behind last year and 14 percentage 
points behind the 5-year average. By November 25, seventy-seven percent of 
this year's sunflower crop was harvested, 15 percentage points behind last 
year and 14 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

Crop Comments

Cotton: Upland cotton harvested area is expected to total 10.1 million acres, 
unchanged from November but down 7 percent from last year. Pima cotton 
harvested area, estimated at 245,400 acres, was carried forward from an 
earlier forecast. 

Harvest progressed well throughout the cotton producing regions during 
November. As of November 25, seventy percent of the crop had been harvested, 
8 percentage points behind last year and 7 percentage points behind the 5-
year average. Harvest progress lagged behind the 5-year average in all of the 
15 weekly Crop Progress estimating States except Arizona, Missouri, Oklahoma 
and Tennessee. If realized, a record high upland yield is expected in 
California and Missouri.
 
Ginnings totaled 10,264,950 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 
11,286,800 running bales ginned prior to the same date last year. 

Grapefruit: The United States 2018-2019 grapefruit crop is forecast at 
676,000 tons, unchanged from last month but up 31 percent from last season's 
final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 6.40 million boxes 
(272,000 tons), is unchanged from last month but up 65 percent from last 
year. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried 
forward from the previous month.

Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is 
forecast at 977,000 tons, unchanged from last month but up 22 percent from 
last season's final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 1.20 million boxes 
(57,000 tons), is unchanged from last month but up 60 percent from the 
previous year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried 
forward from the previous month.

Florida citrus: Temperatures in the citrus growing region were generally 
average or above average during the month. Reported highs ranged from the 
upper 70s to mid-80s on most days. Dry weather was widespread in the citrus 
growing region. About three-fourths of the monitored weather stations 
recorded less than two inches of rainfall during November. According to the 
November 29, 2018 U.S. Drought Monitor, drought conditions continued to 
expand in the citrus growing region. The Indian River District was completely 
under moderate drought conditions. With the exception of Charlotte and 
Lee Counties, the complete Southern area was showing abnormally dry 
conditions or moderate drought. The Central and Northern areas were showing 
abnormally dry conditions in some counties. The Western area remained drought 
free. 

Grove caretakers were spraying, applying fertilizer and herbicide, hedging, 
and taking care of young trees. Irrigation was being run in all areas, with 
multiple observations of ditches being low. Field workers reported "color 
break" on early oranges in all areas. Both white and colored grapefruit were 
also showing color. Volume of fruit harvest was running behind last season on 
all varieties. Early oranges and tangerines were being picked for the fresh 
market. Grapefruit were being spot picked on the East Coast. Open processing 
plants were running packinghouse eliminations (PHE) all month. Field run (FR) 
fruit began to be harvested the last week of November. 

California citrus: Lemons, Valencia oranges, and Finger limes were harvested. 
Navel oranges were picked and tested for maturity. Pushed out citrus groves 
were prepared for planting.

California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Table and wine grape harvest continued. 
Asian pears, pomegranates, and quince were harvested. Stone fruit harvest was 
finished for the season. Some old stone fruit orchards were torn out for 
replacement with new trees. Persimmon and kiwi harvest was ongoing. Olives 
were harvested. Almond harvest was completed for the year. Walnut, pistachio, 
and pecan harvests continued throughout the month. Harvested orchard floors 
were cleaned and young trees were irrigated.

Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2018 is forecast at 
33.8 million tons, up 2 percent from last year. Producers intend to harvest 
915,000 acres for sugar and seed during the 2018 crop year, up 1 percent from 
last year. Expected yield for sugar and seed is forecast at 36.9 tons per 
acre, up 0.1 ton from 2017.

Statistical Methodology

Cotton survey procedures: Objective yield surveys were conducted between 
November 24 and December 1 to gather information on expected yields as of 
December 1. The objective yield survey for cotton was conducted in producing 
States that usually account for approximately 75 percent of the United States 
production. At crop maturity, the fruit is harvested and weighed. After the 
farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to 
obtain current year harvesting loss.

Orange survey procedures: In August and September, the number of bearing 
trees and the number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and 
subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are 
conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop 
the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower and 
packer surveys on a quarterly basis for the forecast, in October, January, 
April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in 
September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.

Cotton estimating procedures: National and State level objective yield 
estimates for cotton were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and 
consistency with historical estimates. For cotton, reports from cotton 
ginners in each State were also considered. Each cotton Regional Field Office 
submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics 
Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare 
the published December 1 forecast.

Orange estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for 
Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency 
with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of 
the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB 
uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published 
December 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also 
used for setting estimates. The December 1 orange production forecasts for 
these two States are carried forward from November.

Revision policy: The December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. For 
cotton, a new estimate will be made in January followed by end-of-season 
revisions in May. Administrative records are reviewed and revisions are made, 
if data relationships warrant changes. Harvested acres may be revised any 
time a production forecast is made, if there is strong evidence that the 
intended harvested area has changed since the last estimate.

For oranges, the December 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new 
forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season 
estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. 
The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the 
marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and 
processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and 
home use.

Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure 
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of 
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the 
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes 
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be 
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the 
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's 
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 cotton production forecast is 
2.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current cotton 
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more 
than 2.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that 
the difference will not exceed 4.1 percent.

Changes between the December 1 cotton forecast and the final estimates during 
the past 20 years have averaged 295,000 bales, ranging from 40,000 to 
775,000 bales. The December 1 forecast for cotton has been below the final 
estimate 10 times and above 10 times. The difference does not imply that the 
December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final 
production.

The "Root Mean Square Error" for the December 1 orange production forecast is 
6.9 percent. However, if you exclude the four abnormal production years (one 
freeze season and three hurricane seasons), the "Root Mean Square Error" is 
6.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange 
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more 
than 6.9 percent, or 6.8 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 
9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 
11.9 percent, or 11.7 percent excluding abnormal seasons.

Changes between the December 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during 
the past 20 years have averaged 454,000 tons (420,000 tons excluding abnormal 
seasons), ranging from 21,000 tons to 1.15 million tons (21,000 tons to 
1.01 million tons, excluding abnormal seasons). The December 1 forecast for 
oranges has been below the final estimate 5 times and above 15 times (below 
5 times and above 11 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does 
not imply that the December 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or 
overstate final production.

USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural 
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127

Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section........................................... (202) 720-2127
David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports............................. (202) 720-3338
     Joshua Bates - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet.................................... (202) 720-9526
     James Johanson - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533
     Jeff Lemmons - Oats, Soybeans.................................................. (202) 690-3234
     Sammy Neal - Peanuts, Rice..................................................... (202) 720-7688
     Jannety Mosley - Crop Weather, Barley.......................................... (202) 720-7621
     Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat....................................................... (202) 720-8068
     Chris Singh - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944
     Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds..................................... (202) 720-7369

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127
     Vincent Davis - Apricots, Bananas, Cherries, Garlic, Lettuce, Mint, Papaya, 
Pears, Strawberries, Tomatoes....................................................... (202) 720-2157
     Fleming Gibson - Avocados, Cauliflower, Celery, Citrus, Coffee, Dates,
Figs, Kiwifruit, Nectarines, Olives, Green Peas, Taro, Watermelons.................. (202) 720-5412
     Greg Lemmons - Blackberries, Blueberries, Boysenberries, Cranberries,
Cucumbers, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Sugarbeets,
Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes........................................................... (202) 720-4285
     Dan Norris - Artichokes, Austrian Winter Peas, Cantaloupes, Dry Beans,
          Dry Edible Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Mushrooms, Peaches, Snap Beans ...... (202) 720-3250
     Daphne Schauber - Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chile Peppers,
Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Maple Syrup, Tree Nuts, Spinach......................... (202) 720-4215
     Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Lima Beans, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-2127

Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following 
ways:

 	All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web 
site: www.nass.usda.gov

 	Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit 
www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right 
corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports 
you would like to receive.

 	Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and 
other agency's archived reports. The new website, 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing 
reports will be sent from the new website, 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via 
e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account 
and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an 
account or subscribe, they are located at: 
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist 
notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to 
avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. 

For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural 
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: 
nass@nass.usda.gov. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against 
its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, 
color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, 
reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial 
or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's 
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic 
information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded 
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and/or employment activities.) 
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, 
complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online 
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or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may 
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Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department 
of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, 
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at 
program.intake@usda.gov.